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The hardwoods across the NBA are gettin' shined and prepped for the final two months of regular-season ball as the NBA figures enjoy their All-Star break breather. A slate of pre-break reflection on this piece. MVP front-runners. Current Play-In standings. Players makin' the most impact. Solid stuff to cover; lets roll.
At the break, the Timberwolves hold sole possession of the top spot atop the Western Conference with a 1.5 game lead over the Thunder. A bit of a surprise considering their expectations coming into the campaign, but the 'Wolves are playin' great basketball as they look to join KG's 2003-04 Timberwolves squad as the only two in franchise history to finish a season with the best record in the Western Conference. Will they show some shivering timbers and blow their lead atop the standings or will they embrace the franchise history?
Minnesota is following a similar path as that 03-04 team as they have been stellar in Conference play and on their home-court. T-Wolves are 27-8 against the West thus far. Which is a big note if you look at the remainder of their schedule coming out of the break. Minnesota's home record is the biggest note. They have the third best winning percentage at home with a rock solid 19-5 record in the Woods. That is a big note as 63% (17 games) of their remaining schedj is at home. The same percentage of the remaining games are against inner-Conference foes. I think it's safe to say the T-Wolves will have a strong chance of being the one seed out of the West by seasons end if they can build off what they did prior to All-Star weekend. We will have a more clear feeling on such chance with how they play in the week and a half after the intermission.
Minnesota plays seven straight home-games starting Friday against the Bucks. One of those games are against the current 3-seed Clippers. They win five or more, then we know this team is ready to be considered a legitimate title contender out of the West. They win five or more and we could have the feeling this team could win the West. If Anthony Edwards can continue his February play going into March- then watch out. He has averaged 30.9 points across seven games in February after his lowest scoring month in January. Minnesota's potential and chances of that one seed will fall on his shoulders.
With the standings starting to have more consistent form and less changes, I looked at the current Play-In seed holders and broke them down by tier with two months of action remaining for them to build their playoff cases. Three simple tiers: the most dangerous, the easy exits, and the 50/50. Shouldn't have to elaborate to deep- easy exits are the ones I won't bet on making it out of the Play-In round as of right now, the 50/50s have me unsure, and the most dangerous is self explanatory.
Only two teams have me feeling no hope in their playoff chances if they make it: the Hawks and the Warriors. Atlanta is the current final seed in the East and Golden State is the current final seed in the West. Warriors are just a game above .500 and the Hawks are a lackluster seven games under .500. Both teams are holding on by a thread in the playoff standings as they rely solely on their star point-guards.
Hawks are definitely an easy exit as of right now. They look no different then they did last season. Trae Young is a top-12 scorer, but he leads the league in turnovers per game. The Hawks offense is number three in the league in total points (per) while their defense is dead last in total points given up (per). Not a team that can be successful in the playoffs. The defense is treacherous. Trae Young is nice in spurts on offense, but in all-around game- he can be a disaster for a team with aspirations of winning. The same to be said about their second scoring option Dejounte Murray... who can't score at a consistent clip these days. Murray ranks 235th in Defensive Win Shares while Young ranks a nasty 321. Young ranks in the bottom six of Defensive Box Plus/minus among 193 qualifiers. Hawks will be worrying about holding off the Nets and Raptors for a chance to be a solidified early exit.
Warriors are in a little better shape due to Stephen Curry still being an elite scorer, but they too don't give off too much hope. Not with how Klay Thompson is these days. I think he needs to remain coming off the bench. Brandin Podziemski is offering the Warriors' rotation more with his ability to rebound and pass the rock. Not just the pros from Podziemski's POV, but the drive it could initiate in Klay. Drive we saw in his first game off the bench when he had his highest scoring performance of the season with 35 against the Jazz. Just Klay's third 30-piece(+) of the season. If he can start giving more production, then maybe this team will improve. I do have more confidence in Golden State getting out of the easy exit tier compared to the Hawks. Having Chef Curry sure helps with that.
Kings, Bulls, Magic, and Heat make up my 50/50 tier. I am torn on all four. Kings are the only one of the four that lean towards the Most Dangerous with how the tandem of Sabonis and Fox have been playing for Sacramento. The Magic are behind them, followed by the Heat and then the Bulls.
Chicago leans more towards the easy exit tier. Bulls join the Hawks as the only two current Play-In teams with a losing record. They have been playing better and more consistent ball in the past month and a half, but bettin' on them to keep it up is still a tough ask. If DeMar DeRozan keeps playing like he has in February, prior to the break, then the Bulls might create a spark as a rotation. Big might, however. Bulls need Coby White to keep steppin' up as a scorer. Like DeRozan, White is also having his best month of the season on the offensive in February. Bulls need the offense to be more productive if they want to get over the hump and remain in the Play-In standings. Bulls are 4-2 when White scores 30+ and is in most ballgames when he scores 25+. They are 10-17 when he scores less than 20. The main importance for Billy Donovan and his staff? Improving the offense. Bulls rank bottom three as a team in assists and are in the mid-20s for points. Same issues for the Heat and Magic.
Orlando has had some big moments thus far across the season. They held the top seeds in the East at one point in the early-winter, had a nine game winning streak to close out November, and have been superb at home with a 18-8 record. Despite that, they find themselves as the 8-seed in the East, giving me 50/50 vibes on if they can be a team to make a splash in the playoffs. Orlando's record at home is a big plus. So is Paolo Banchero, who continues to elevate his game as the season progress. It's just the offense that is stumping the Magic's potential. Orlando is in the bottom five of the league in both points and assists per game. They also rank 29th in 3-point percentage. The field goal percentage collectively isn't bad, but the Magic rank 27th in field-goal attempts per. The O is holding them back, and making it hard to bet on them to be a player out of the Play-In.
The Magic's song sings the same for the Heat in regards to lackluster offense. Miami passes better than Orlando, but their execution is worse as they rank 27th in points per game, 28th in field-goals attempted per, and 28th in field-goals made per game. Jimmy Butler isn't a guy the Heat can lean on every night and that's an issue. I can't bet on this team. I can't bet on any team in the Southeast right now to be quite frank. Heat need more from their stars in Butler and Adebayo. The role players need to step up too. Eric Spo got his bonus money, now he's got to get back to coaching.
No team out of the Play-In for the East give off dangerous vibes. After some ponder, I do have three, from the West, that are the most dangerous... now including the Kings. Kings are above the Heat and Magic... I have more confidence in the Kings than any of the 50/50s. They can belong here. That being because of the Sabonis-Fox tandem. Sabonis not getting an All-Star nod is nasty. Plain and simple. He is playing like a top-10 all-around hooper right now in the league for the Kings. We forget that this Kings team was the 3-seed in the West last season. We forget that they already faced defeat in a hard fought playoff series (teaching lesson). If the Kings can improve in their division and against teams in the West during the final stretch, then look for them to become more dangerous. Splitting the season series with the Warriors was massive.
It's easy to consider the Mavericks and Lakers as potentially dangerous coming out of the Play-In. Dallas got better when they acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Having Luka playin' like a MVP front-runner helps too. The ship moves when he makes it move. Just like the Lakers with LeBron/AD. Lakers are playin' the best ball right now, that they have played since the beginning of December. They have won six of their last seven games going into the break and are on a rise in the standings. D'Angelo Russell has been steppin' up on offense and the role guys are catching some positive grooves. AD has been a consistent game-breaker since December. He ranks 6th in Player Efficiency Rating, 3rd in Defensive Win Shares, 3rd in Rebounds per, and 5th in Blocks per. Davis is playin' elite, which gives the Lakers major potential in being a contender out of the Play-In. Unlike the other five Play-Ins, the Lakers and Mavericks have the potential to fight for a higher seed rather than fight to keep their place in the Play-In.
The injury to Joel Embiid, knocking him out of contention for the MVP, has opened the door for a new winner to be crowned. It's opened the door to a wide-open competition. My ladder is a fatal four-way fight currently, but realistically there are a solid 6 players who all have MVP cases at the intermission. Here is my current ladder:
I give Dončić a slight lead atop the ladder, but his lack of defense will probably have me switch to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sooner rather than later. The entire race between the four is DEADLOCKED at the break. All four have extremely strong cases. Luka is the best on the offensive while SGA, Mitchell, and Jokić are building their cases around their all-around game and pure efficiency. Joker per usual is ranked second in PER with SGA right behind him at the 3-spot and Luka sittin' at number five. Most of the advanced categories has Luka, Joker, and SGA sittin' atop the rankings. Mitchell is a tad behind the three, but his value to the Cavaliers is what makes his case neck and neck with the pack.
Mitchell is as valuable as they come this season. Cavaliers sit in the 2-spot atop the Eastern Conference despite Darius Garland and Evan Mobley playin' in just 55% of the Cavs' games. D-Mitch ranks 5th in scoring, 2nd in steals per game, and 7th in box plus/minus per game. Mitchell most certainly has a case despite being a few ranks behind the other three in advanced stats and efficiency. Luka and Mitchell's cases are rooted off value. Both their squads go as they go. Same can be said about Shai, however. SGA leads the league in Win Shares and is second behind Jokić in value over replacement. His case is the strongest without a doubt. This race is going to be fast and furious.
The final two months will be special as we watch this MVP race play out. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis also have strong cases. I predict it to come down to SGA and Jokić, but we will see. Luka is hungry and Mitchell is playing like a straight assassin. It's nice to see the prestigious award be fought for against several stars again. This will indeed be enjoyable to watch unravel.
We have just two cats averaging double digit assists on the season: Tyrese Haliburton and Trae Young. Both have been extremely impressive in dishin' the rock. Trae sure can bring the flare with his flick, but he doesn't bring the level of efficiency we are seeing from Haliburton's passing. I think it's safe to say Hali has the Dime King title in the bag this season.
Haliburton has seven games this season with zero turnovers and 10+ assists, eleven games with 15+ assists, and back-to-back games of 20+ assists. Hali is looking to become the first player since Russell Westbrook in 2020-21 to end the season averaging 11+ assists per game. He ranks second in Offensive Box Plus/minus per and 5th in offensive win shares. That's how elite his passing has been. You already know he is doing it with some flare too. Rather off the bounce or off the backboard; Haliburton is going to set up his teammates:
video via NBA TV/X
I'd be shocked if Haliburton doesn't end the season with the best assists per game average. His remarkable vision and passing skill has elevated his value and his confidence on the hardwood. Haliburton has become a top guard in the league and looks to bring the Pacers to a playoff run in a wide open East outside of Boston.
He may not be a MVP front-runner, but Jalen Brunson is without a doubt my Biggest Baller going into the intermission. J-Brun has improved after each month and is puttin' the Knicks on his back damn near every night. Brunson is one of hottest scorers in February going into the break averaging 33.7 points per across six games. His game could be cleaned up at times as he can go cold from deep and hasn't been too superior at the stripe, but his intensity and slashing gets his team going and the crowd going.
New York doesn't sit in the 4-spot atop the East without Brunson's production and leadership. Knicks went 13-1 in January behind Brunson's 28.9 points per, 7.7 assists per, and solid 2.1 turnovers per. His evolution as a player in the league is remarkable. From a role player to a starter, and now a potential superstar and face of a franchise. He is having a career year with career best in almost every category outside of shooting percentages. Brunson ranks 7th in scoring and has a good chance of finishing in the top five if he continues his tear since January. Baller. Brunson should get even better when Julius Randle and OG Anunoby are healthy and both on the floor.
The players will get a few more days off before the action returns and the final stretch is activated. Lots of storylines with stakes now coming into play in the near future. Games become much more important. Seeding implications cause stirs. It's the best part of the regular season. Plus we have players on personal vendettas to claim incentives and accolades. The noise is upon us. Let the madness begin.
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