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The nuclear fusion in the NFL's core is giving off tremendous energy as we dive deeper into the hunt for the playoffs. The Reaper gets new visitors at the gallow as coaching changes swirl around heavily. The top twelve teams build separation from the rest of the league, and division warfare is set to send some major quakes in the standings. Lets start with the coaching changes, then we talk odds.
It's only November, yet we are beginning to see several coaches get the can, and a one-way ticket to the gallow. In just the past two weeks, the Reaper claimed a head coach, two offensive coordinators, and several notable assistant/position coaches. I considered the Saints firing head coach Dennis Allen a surprise on first ponder, then quickly felt it to be expected... leaving me torn on if the decision was the right call or not.
The visual evidence to aid the termination was candid. The Saints locker-room was surrounded by flames as they rode a seven game losing streak going into the termination. The team looked depleted; showed zero grit, and had captains showing emotions of rage in front of the scenes. Allen looked to have lost the team; which always points to a reasonable firing, but man does this one sting after how the team started the season.
Sitting week-3, Allen, a defensive minded coach, looked to have found his match with Klint Kubiak to sustain his seat, with true contender aspirations. Then with the snap of the fingers, things go nuclear. Due to a number of factors; some on Allen, some not. Kubiak has fell apart, if we are being honest. Sure as hell has in comparison to the opening weeks. Note, there has been injuries, and Derek Carr sucks, which hasn’t helped the case. Derek Carr has now been a factor in Allen losing both his head coaching positions, and now likely his chance to be a HC entirely in the NFL (he's a DC bottom line).
Offense for me, gets a lot of the blame for the Saints, but a billed top DC/HC sure gets blame for a 28th ranked defense. So not only do I understand the termination; I'd call for it. Allen can't cut it as a head coach, two strikes you're out- now we get another top notch coordinator eventually returning to where he soars. The decision to promote special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi to interim HC was the best route... we see that with the Saints upsetting the Falcons to end the losing streak, the debut week under Rizzi. It was time for change. Saints can only look forward.
Now, lets talk those Raiders cutting ties with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. That decision I am fully against; I think it's ridiculous, and the fact it "came from" Antonio Pierce, and AP solely is just absurd. Shows he is too emotional, and very slim minded. Enlighten me on just what we think the cat Getsy can do with this:
The roster is atrocious! No coordinator will do anything with that. Bailing on Getsy so quick just doesn't make sense for a rookie head coach that is limited. I am not against Pierce firing the offensive line coach, nor the quarterbacks coach, even though they too are dealing with a whole lotta nothing in terms of skill. Just getting rid of Getsy is an awful decision, in my opinion. Pierce made matters worse when he announced the two cats he believes will fare better...
Pierce promoted Scott Turner from pass-game coordinator to interim OC and asked him to bring his daddy, Norv, out of retirement to "help" run the offense. Is this all satire? Who is pulling my damn leg? Norv Turner!? Pierce, you think Norv and Scott Turner will do a better job than Luke Getsy? What Compton crack are you smoking, AP? In all seriousness, what an outlandish decision. Scott Turner was a mess in Washington in his three-year tenure, and couldn't even make a second year in Carolina, despite having a prime McCaffrey as a back brace.
Norv Turner quite literally has over a dozen years of being mid to bad at calling offenses in the NFL, and his only good years came with prime Ricky Williams, prime LT, prime Stephen Davis, prime Emmit Smith, and prime Adrian Peterson. All top ranked rushing seasons. We have seen the results of Norv not having a Hall of Fame running back, and they are terrible. Football Gods themselves can't make a productive backfield of Alexander Mattison & Zamir White. Sure as hell won't be Norv and Scott Turner. Pierce must feel like he is treading in water or something. This decision is a desperate one. Seeking a scapegoat. Won't manage well in the end, I am afraid.
When I got the notification that Matt Eberflus and the Bears delayed the original Tuesday press conference time, I figured we would hear his fate had finally reached the gallow. That wasn't the case; he somehow continues to keep his job as OC Shane Waldron becomes another fall-guy under Eberflus. It's the first time since 1970 that the Bears fired an offensive coordinator mid-season. They elect to stick with Eberflus behind the wheel, with their "prized" number one pick learning from a bunch of baby-face coaches.
Bears promote pass-game coordinator Thomas Brown to OC; a former running-back, now a 5-year NFL experienced coach. Brown struggled with Frank Reich calling the Panthers offense last season, now Matt Eberflus believes he is the man to save the Bears offense. On top of that, Eberflus has a former defensive back in Kerry Joseph as his quarterbacks coach. Joseph only has two years of experience working with QBs... with already established 8-year vet Geno Smith, and Drew Lock. That's it, oh, and Joseph worked under Shane Waldron in Seattle as well. Those are the two guys that Eberflus put in front of Ryan Poles, saying these are the guys that will help salvage the season for the Bears. These are the two guys that are going to save Caleb Williams from facing demise... and Poles agreed. Only Waldron goes, Eberflus is safe... what a damn joke. What a joke of a franchise. It's shameful to see a rich franchise allow failure, putting a good fan-base in oppression.
Kevin Warren is failing every minute he allows Ryan Poles to pour gas on the fire. Poles and Eberflus have to go, if Warren can't see that; then the McCaskeys’ should step in and get rid of him too (hired in '23). You can't wait until Caleb Williams reaches a demise. It's got to happen now, or things will get nuclear. Williams turning into a bust will do this franchise in for multiple years. Eberflus has no business allowing this roster to be a 4-5 team. I get the offensive line is terrible, but it goes beyond the OL. Williams is not the player he was going into his career. Both in skill and mentals. Bears are going to regret keeping Eberflus for as long as they have. Same goes for Ryan Poles.
We are moving deeper and deeper into the NFL's core as the playoff hunt is in full swing. As of now, the top-twelve teams; top six seeds in each conference, are legitimate bets to lock in a playoff berth. The final Wild-Card spot for each conference is realistically up for the takin' amongst a handful of teams, but the rest of the bracket is quite predictable. Take a look at the current AFC Playoff Picture:
The top six seeds not only have some distance from the hunters below them; they also look comfortable as playoff spotters. The drop-off is significant. Indy in the 8-spot can only fight for the final WC, despite the Texans losing two of three; thanks to the two Texans' wins over the Colts. The odds of the Texans losing the division are slim to none. Colts are reverting back to Anthony Richardson as starter; lets see if they can stick in the race.
Bengals are the only real hunter that has a chance to be a sleeper, in my opinion. Here are my tiers for the AFC; I am looking at each team in the playoff picture by chances of making the playoffs:
With the current NFL product, the AFC tiers don't create a tough task for me to complete. Get real with it. Top six seeds are locked. Barring any crazy injuries, the spots are locked. Chargers have enough separation from Cincy, Miami, and Indy that it's a no-brainer to give them strong odds to stay neutral... BUT, there is a huge kicker. Chargers and Bengals are going to war on the upcoming SNF. Huge game; massive implications. Can't count them out until we see the results of that game, especially with the Bengals having the Steelers twice, and Denver on the remaining schedj. Joe Burrow is playing far too good to eliminate the Bengals' odds before SNF. Can't wait for that game!
The NFC has some different vibes going on; nothing vastly different, but the top six seeds aren't as safe as the AFC's top six seeds. The top two seeds seem safe, the rest of the pact can't say the same as they are sweating bullets. Here is the current NFC Playoff Picture:
Top two seeds are likely locked in. Lions will win the North and the top seed, while the NFC East winner of Eagles or Commanders, will be the second seed. I have strong odds on that being Philly... those odds will be tested, and possibly placed in stone come Friday morning as the Commanders and Eagles rock TNF this week. This is what I have on the white-board going into a massive week-11:
Cardinals are rolling right now, no doubt. Rocking a 4-game winning streak to place atop the West with Kyler Murray playing the best ball of his career. Despite the current heatwave in the desert, I have the Cards as a bad bet. It's the Cardinals... and it's the bloody NFC West. No chance I am betting on them just yet. That can change in a week or two, however.
Arizona is up just a game over the 49ers (won first meeting), and are two games above the 4-5 Rams & Seahawks. Cardinals are currently 2-0 in the division with four of their final seven games being intra-division. Arizona has Seattle in two of the next three games. Clarification is looming out of the West! Each squad has tough remaining schedules with lots of intra-West warfare. One of the four is enroute to the safe-bet sector, but we aren't there yet. Get the popcorn; unless you are a fan of one of the four; then I suggest you bring a brown bag and a hand-fan, cha heard.
The three in my treading-tier have solid odds of making the playoffs, but the losing has to be limited to none from here on out. Not much room for error. Looking at the playoff picture today, I feel the 49ers as the only hunter who can slipstream into a spotter. Bears are done. Rams and Seahawks have little odds, but do have some breathe. Week-11 is going to tell us a lot as we have a gorgeous slate of action. Top notch primetime games with a THUNDEROUS late-afternoon slate on Sunday. Run it through our veins!
Updated Power Rankings:
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