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Out the gates! NFL 105 is officially underway as we move to chapter-2. Chapter-1 had a theme of ugly, nasty, and predictability. Record breaking viewership tuned in to watch disgusting QB play & lopsided matchups take up their Sunday. With the nasty, also came some noise. The opening war between the Chiefs and Ravens set the pact up nicely; the Brazil game brought pure electricity in both the landscape, and the play on the field; plus we saw a SNF banger in Motown between the Rams & Lions. Last year's powerhouses put the league on its back in week-1.
I won't stunt; I will be playing negative nancy on this reflection piece themed Gridiron Talk. I saw way too much nasty in week-1 to do the contrary. I should not be seeing $200M+ paid signal callers lookin' like rookie projects. That can't be happening. Watson? Burrow? Hurts? Hello!? Is anyone in there? Psh... lets start with that shall we. The crisis of all crisis... the NFL's QB Nightmare.
It feels like doomsday is soon approaching right now for coaches and quarterbacks around the NFL. It's only week-1 and we are back to seeing the DISTINCT separation from Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen in that compared to the rest of the league's starting quarterbacks. It's clear as day. Allen and Mahomes are in a tier of their own, while the rest of the QBs remain just pieces to a large puzzle... or available gasoline to pour on a given fire.
Mahomes and Allen can go win a game. Chiefs and Bills coaches, and fans; have true confidence in their respected QB to go win a game if the rock is in their hand to lead. With Stafford and Rodgers aged, it's just Pat and JA in that top tier. The next tier simply can't deliver that confidence. I'm talkin' about Herbert, Hurts, Burrow, Jackson, Watson, and Lawrence. All six of them looked terrible, bad, or mid-bad in the opening week (Herbert was fine). No $200M QB should look like they have regressed in a WK-1! All six of them should be looking like Allen, forcing people to blame the 20-30 other players contributing to losses or near losses (defense, ST, and/or bad o-line play) & not their superstar QB. 2 hundo bucks come with a cape; I see NO capes!
There is currently 13 players across the league that are signed to contracts valued over the $200M threshold: all quarterbacks. Only 4 of the 13 (Burrow, Goff, Hurts, Mahomes) have started in a Super Bowl; with Mahomes being the only one of the four to have won a Super Bowl(s). You look at those 13 and you will notice only Allen & Mahomes are confident game-breakers. The rest fall in a variety of tiers. I have seven overall tiers in a ranking of six:
It's a true QB nightmare. My tiers in a quick summary:
Superstar:
X-Factor
Pure Gamebreaker
Franchise Pillar
Can alter games
Doesn't need to be coached or audibled in important moments
Leads game-winning drives with all the confidence in the world
Star:
Flashy star that has the potential to alter games; with less confidence.
Can get to the big stage, but awaits the next step
Gamebreaker that has costly weaknesses/needs coaching
Big risk high reward investment
Past-Prime:
Legend of the game that still has something to offer
Once top tier; now just shades of greatness
Needs playmakers to finish the execution
Suitable Pieces:
Skill potential that needs coaching/pieces around them (most)
Boom or Bust (most) Who Knows?
Can alter games, or can throw away games
Lacks confidence compared to the top tier
Student of the game that needs playmakers around them due to lack of skill (Purdy)
High potential but can't complete the climb (Tua, Hurts, Burrow, Herbert, T-Law, Love)
Seat-Filler:
Self-Explanatory
Can help win games, but has no gamebreaker ability
Anchor:
Highly paid with no production to match
Can help lose games with own miscues
Anchors keeping 'chises in the mud
Projects:
Self-Explanatory
Projects that have little optimism of working out
Bad coaching/scenario
Rookie
May football Gods be with them
I feel my tiers are pretty accurate going into week-2. I sense the chirps will come regarding my current tiers 2-3. Let's talk about it. Action Jackson had the defending champs in the gutter. LJ was a gamebreaker with his legs and in shades in the air, but missed massive throws/reads, in massive moments of the game. Once again, and once again against the Chiefs. Jackson's forte. I can't include him in that top tier due to that. LJ is a star, but he's not a superstar that can single handily change a game result. I don't see me being proven wrong either. This is becoming an obvious theme. Ravens were better than the Chiefs in all facets. Jackson just couldn't get them to the finish line... moving his record against Mahomes to 1-5.
Stroud has the potential to join the top tier. His sophomore season will prove a lot. Right now, I group him with LJ; which can absolutely be looked at as crazy considering the cats who follow in T3. Stroud has done nothing but progress however, and shows potential game-breaking abilities the more he learns and gels in the NFL. Stroud will have to regress for my mind to change there... ya know, regress like most the cats in T3 have after spending 2+ seasons in the league.
The guys that we desperately want to be superstars; just refuse to be superstars, despite their big bags. Jalen Hurts was quite rough against the Packers; Burrow wasn't good; Lawrence wasn't good; Tua is Tua. Justin Herbert unfortunately has to prove himself again. Richardson is just now in the prove it stage. Purdy, Baker, Dak, and Goff all have potential to win games, but they also have potential to aid loses. All these QBs are suitable pieces, not game-breakers. In week-1 we saw just two cats throw for over 300+ yards on the opening week- Tua and Stafford. Seventeen day-one starters threw for less than 200 yards. Only eight starters finished their start with a plus 80 QBR (none over 90- Allen 89.9). Eleven finished with a 32 or below. Watson? 9.3 QBR against the Cowboys (10th highest contract). Most of it is play-callers being scared to push the boundaries. The game is more conservative because of lack of coaching and development. I am so ready for this QB nightmare to come to an end. Here is my current QB rankings going into week-2... speaks for itself:
The negative nancy is not done. It feels like we are in the weakest era of NFL comp' since the golden age (pre '50s). We have reached the weakest era of the 21st-century in the NFL. I touched on the QB nightmare; that's not all that is slacking. Coaching staffs are awful in today's game & the distinction from good play to bad play is far too visible to the non-casual eye. The weekly matchups are terrible due to that distinction. I wanted to rip my eyes out watching Chicago attempt to play offense. I wanted to smack my head into the wall when watching the Panthers attempt to play team football. So many teams are pure MEH... they can be competitive or get blown out. No consistency on either outcome.
Most of the blame for the league's product is on front offices and "coaching". Educate yourself on how staffs were built from 1970-2012. Look at Andy Reid's resume and staff history to start. You will notice a lot... and quickly. Rosters are built so poorly, coaching trees have no firm roots, and poor budget understanding is forcing long-term domino effects. Why are owners being GMs? Why are coordinators not understanding their role? Why are we dumping $200M contracts to players in a system with no order, potential, or skill? What you saw from Caleb Williams in week-1 has just as much to do with Matt Eberflus than it does with Williams. Lack of development plus this new generation's lack of work ethic and poorly directed culture is polluting the game.
Coaching is far more difficult in this new generation. The new flock would rather rely on given talent, rather than pure work ethic. Coaches also need to fight with extreme entitlement in this weak age of handouts and participation. We are slowly seeing the mannerism and demeanor of those like Brady, MJ, Kobe, Dawkins, LT, and Moss go away. The killer instinct in humans is spread only among a small percentage in this age. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were hardly looked at coming out of high school. Neither were off the walls unreal in college (especially Pat). The two have that killer instinct. Now look at their placement. Players need that instinct to reach greatness and we can't push the coaches who preach it out (Kirby Smart, Tom Izzo). People who think Bill Belichick is an asshole are so soft. Bill walked and talked the very way he had to in order to build that empire. There is a reason that I am high on Dan Campbell being the man to bring the Lions its first Lombardi. Guys like Jalen Hurts need that in coaching. Nick Sirianni is not what Hurts needs. Herbert going from Staley to Jim Harbaugh is career reviving. Having a coach rooted off discipline, grit, and work ethic is vital. The brains then are put around them.
McDaniel, LaFleur, Zac Taylor, Steichen, Bowles, Gannon, and Shanahan are all coordinators. The best of the best at that. They need to know their role and swallow the pride for the sake of the product. Mayo in New England with Bowles/Gannon as DC and anyone of those OCs I mentioned above (if you know ball) as the OC? That's Super Bowl results. Chiefs get it. Ravens and Bills kinda get it (both their coaches are from the Reid cloth). Lions and Texans are getting it. We need proper coaching trees back in football!
We also need more dog in the league. More bark! We need the Dawkins and Ray Lewis energy. Instead these cats are out here spending their game-day mornings paintin' their nails and deciding on what goofy Met Gala outfit to wear. Unfortunately on Tyreek's behalf, it was refreshing to have something masculine and exciting happen before a NFL kickoff, ha!
It seems I have had really no points up to this spot of the article. It's all quite a rant and spew. Which means, I may as well end things with some Blitz! The theme of the piece... I'll relax on the negativity, though.
Is the AFC West the Chiefs and Chargers to fight for?
KC is back looking for a three-peat, but may have a tougher monster to slay in the AFC West this season with the arrival of the Chargers under the Harbaugh regime. LA looked better in all facets in the win over the Raiders. More growth ahead, but just like that, the team looks more coached, disciplined, and dangerous. Next is letting Herbert loose. Herby ranked in the bottom-10 in air yard stats against Vegas. It was a methodical and conservative GP by Harbaugh... which is his system, but he needs to know that he actually has a QB now. A QB with a cannon that wants to do damage down-the-field.
We should see if Harbaugh gets more loose with Herbert and the passing offense, but winning is the most important thing right now. It's a good start... they can use the game against the Panthers this weekend to get loose with play-calling. I expect this team to be a problem for the Chiefs to cruise to another AFC West title, especially if J.K. Dobbins can stay healthy (rushed for over 100+ yards for 1st time since 12/17/22).
Are the Saints legit... or was it just the Panthers?
Kubiak play-calling era in New Orleans is off to a BANG. Saints crushed the Panthers 47-10. It was a perfect performance for Nola. Are the Saints legit? Or are the Panthers just that bad? It's surely a bit of both. Saints looked damn good. Executed well in all facets. The team will do nothing but progress with Allen having his play-caller in Kubiak... the opening week is a strong example of that. Panthers are bad, sure. Having the better vibes under coach Canales gave off the hunch things have changed. Losing DT Derrick Brown didn't help Carolina's case. This is the NFL. A 47-10 victory is notable no matter the opp.
Lets keep in mind the NFC South went into the campaign wide-open. Panthers or not, that first dub was shiny and sets the pace nicely for the Saints. Only a fool would think that team isn't legit to challenge the Bucs simply because their opp was the bottomless Panthers. Kubiak was the piece needed to make the Saints start their rise back up. Huge-huge challenge this weekend as they travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys (last met in 2021).
Barkley and Philadelphia= Match
How about the Eagles debut for Saquon Barkley: three tuddies to help the Eagles soar past the Pack in Brazil. A visual that made eyes bleed for Giants fans. Barkley joined Terrell Owens as the only two Eagles players to score 3 touchdowns in a debut game. Barkley showed elite acceleration and vision... droppin' a statement that his prime isn't up just yet.
Saquon and the Eagles look to be a match made in heaven with the arrival of Kellen Moore as play-caller. Moore's offense thrived in Dallas because of Ezekiel Elliot... now Moore has Barkley. Eagles faithful have been begging for more rushing offense (me). Your prayers are likely answered. The burst for 26 is still there:
video via @NFL//X
AFC South is revamped
Despite the collapse on offense in the 2nd-half, I still liked what I saw from Brian Callahan and the Titans on the road in Chicago's home-opener. South may be 1-3 going into WK-2, but all four teams had some real strong positives. Revamped? Not sure yet. Jaguars & Titans should not have lost their games with how the plot was going. Titans had NO business losing, especially considering how awful Caleb Williams and the Bears offense was. Blowing a 17-0 lead and giving up 24 unanswered (all D/ST points) is rough. Team still looks to have some potential. Just need to coach Will Levis and clean up the negatives. This pick-six just can't happen:
video via @NFL//X
Texans won't cruise atop this division. That I feel is certain. Colts had them on the brink, Titans are better under Callahan, and the Jaguars have some bite; will either remain in the 9-8 tier or progress. More needs to be shown to consider the division revamped, but I do fully expect each team to be better in '24 from what I saw in WK-1.
Does Saleh have anything to offer NYJ?
Despite all the investments by the Jets, the team can only go as far as the coach can go. 49ers cruised to victory in Rodgers' comeback game behind the efforts of Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, and Jauan Jennings. Mmm, that's right. It was another display of good coaching vs bad coaching. Can Saleh motivate these men to be a player in the AFC East? I don't see it happening. Jets travel to Tennessee next... lets see if they can beat Will Levis.
Week-1 was a let down, but it's still nice to have football back. Week two will only bring the same energy. The matchup slate is weak. We do have a nice AFC East banger tonight on paper between the Fins and Bills. Lets hope the noise matches the chalk. Leave here with my first Power Rankings drop of the season. Keep in mind, these rankings have nothing to do with how last season ended, madden rankings, your favorite player, or long-term potential. My rankings go off week-to-week action and that's it. It's not who I think are the best teams in order (I gotta keep repeating myself). So yes, the top-16 is made up of all teams who are undefeated. I allow the season to make up the rankings, not my predictions:
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