Aug 17, 20233 min read

Rookie Rush

It's not even the start of week 2 preseason games and we have a devastating twister of stupidity rippin' through the potential of this year's rookie QB class. I'm no storm chaser, but I saw this twister coming from miles away. NFL teams do this far too often with high drafted rookie QBS. They already suck at scouting, then they go and rush things on top of it. Fools gold.

Why do we rush rookie quarterbacks, why I ask!? This started with David Carr in 2002, and has just gotten worse and worse over time. The QB transition from the NCAA to the NFL is advanced to the degree that training camp and some preseason games will not have a rookie QB prepared enough to win from the get go. That's not an opinion, that's fact. This isn't the 80s. The players in today's day, come in as projects with how the landscape of college football is. Winning aside, rushing a rookie QB raises the chances of the player not panning out, and becoming a bust. Sitting a rookie QB allowing them to learn, is the best route to go. Patrick Mahomes being a clear example.

We see teams fail time and time again when they start a rookie QB week 1. Look at the notable starters from past drafts, and find the trend with their "verdicts":

The only clear verdict, is Joe Burrow's. Burrow led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in just his second year, and is a top 3 QB in the AFC- he is a clear exception. The rest have failed. They came in as projects and were rushed. Not rushed into stardom- but rushed to being a bust.

I was nice by only going back to 2013. I left off the likes of Brandon Weeden, Robert Griffin III, and the previously mentioned David Carr. Move your attention away from my verdicts on the table, and look at the performances. Very turnover friendly, as you'd expect, and what isn't seen on the stats is the obvious understanding that those QBs were not fully acquainted to the playbook; snap counts; and the system in a whole. Even Joe Burrow for that matter.

I know I rave about the approach Kansas City had regarding Mahomes, now that doesn't mean I say you HAVE to sit a rookie QB an entire year. No, no, no. I like Miami's way of handling Tua Tagovailoa's rookie season. They sat him behind Ryan Fitzpatrick up to their week 7 bye. Miami started Tua after the bye week and the Dolphins won their first three games with Tua. A great route, sure better than starting him week 1.

If only Brian Flores would have given his advice to the Texans; Colts; and Panthers, prior to them announcing that their rookie QBs were starting week one this coming season. Anthony Richardson (IND); CJ Stroud (HOU); and Bryce Young (CAR) are all rushed to start the season. I think all three get tossed around opening weekend. This is absurdly stupid.

I already expected Indianapolis to be dumb and start Richardson, but Stroud and Young starting for their teams too? Cmon. Richardson and Stroud looked brutal in their opening preseason games, showing immediate signs of being a project with a lot of room to grow until they reach potential. The cat, Stroud, is already rollin' in with the Buckeye stamp, and now he starts week one... not good. Young is in the same boat. Bryce looked better than Stroud and Richardson for the Panther's preseason opener, but showed those same signs of needing growth & has in camp as well. Learning on the fly is just dumb, and it doesn't work as good as preparation; patience and shadowing growth.

I expect all three rookies to have tough opening weeks. I will be keeping sharp eyes on their play in camp and in the remaining preseason games, lets see if they can show growth to the point of being more comfortable in the reality of them starting right away. I know it won't happen, nothing will change my opinion on starting rookie QBs week one. You will regret it.

Rookie Rush

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