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Back with another Diamond Report; this report having a theme of traction and streakin’, rather than the chill vibes from the last piece. We are seeing a slew of fiery clubs cause moves left and right across the standings that have sparked Wild-Card mania to HEAT up. Five playoff chasers are playin’ hot as could be winning 7 or more of their last ten outings, NLW is leveling up, and the AL MVP race is playing out to be one for the ages (21st-century). 2001 vibes and then some. It’s gettin’ hot folks. Let’s talk those flaming’ up.
Padres are rippin’ up the competition! San Diego is arguably the hottest team across the senior-circuit right now, hoisting the best current record across 2nd-half play with a rock solid 15-4 record. In that span, Padres have recorded two lengthy winning streaks: a seven gamer, and a sixth gamer; which was snapped Saturday night. They are beating the best teams at that, with series dubs over the Guardians; Orioles; Dodgers (2-GM sweep); and Pirates (3-GM sweep). Mark 'em for three series sweeps, four shutouts, and three extra-innings wins across the 2nd-half. Defining red-hot. Playoffs? Sheit, Pads want the NL West crown too!
Big time flip as of late atop the NLW; now we have an electric race takin' place- with the Padres right there near the pole, just three and half games back of the Dodgers. With Fernando Tatis Jr. on the shelf and the rotation damaged (Musgrove/Darvish on shelf), Padres have been powered by Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Merrill and rising Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease. The return to form (some what) of Xander Bogaerts since returning from injury in July has been a driving force for the hot streak as well. Not playing to contract by any means, but he's batting much better, especially in July: .453 AVG / 24 Hits / 1.087 OPS.
Cease has been the hottest all-around Padre across the flip. The Pads' ace has been remarkable in 2nd-half play, and has been a huge reason for San Diego's push; winning three of his four outings (rain delay takes away the fifth in my book) thus far in the 2nd-half. Cease threw a no-no against the Nats (2nd in Padres history), won four consecutive outings to end July, and has stormed his way into the Cy Young race, despite having a high ERA (3.41).
The storm was powered by an epic three-start stretch that placed his name in the history books. Cease became just the 10th pitcher in MLB history to record three consecutive starts of at least six innings allowing one or fewer hits, joining legends Sandy Koufax (x2), Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Cease has six starts this season allowing just one hit or fewer; an MLB record... held by only Cease. He's been HUGE, and the Padres are thankful.
If this hot streak can continue, the Pads will have a strong shot at getting in the playoffs with good spirits... the streak can possibly even kickstart them to snapping the Giants/Dodgers' NLW title win-streak. Padres only have four series on the remaining schedule against foes whom currently hold a playoff spot (MIN; ARI, LAD, & HOU), while having four series against teams currently under .500. The page is being written up nicely for them; they just need to continue the execution and the Pads are in the playoffs. Watchout for San Diego! They still need Tatis and his thigh to heal up, but watchout for these surging Padres!
Diamondbacks saw the Padres leveling up in the standings; so they had to follow suit to keep on the wing as both clubs are just 3.5 games back of the Dodgers looking to perform a slipstream-n-pass. Snakes have their venom refilled; and the rattler intensified! Arizona has been just as good in 2nd-half play as the Pads, winning 15 of their first 20 (currently 15-5) with series dubs over the Guardians, Pirates (x2), and Royals. D-backs have a sweep of the Nationals to go with that sweep of the Guardians and are 8-2 against teams currently holding a playoff spot. Snakes have won 7 off their last 8 games. The venom is FULL and wreaking havoc on it's opps.
Diamondbacks are being powered by their face of the 'chise, Ketel Marte. The star second-baseman is doing it all for the Snakes, leading the team in all offensive categories outside of two & three baggers. Marte's production is the the driving factor for the club's turnaround after it entered July three games under .500. Now the club is 13 games over positive, with Marte being right on the tail of Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP. Marte has slowed down in August, but his July numbers were excellent: .357 AVG / 7 HR / 23 RBIs / 1.048 OPS. Once his ankle contusion stops causing fits, he should resume that June-July production. It's not just Marte aiding this hot streak; Snakes had Brandon Pfaadt showin' some of that '23 postseason form in July to bolster a devastating starting rotation that has been carried by the bullpen... which would be the other big driving factor for the flip.
Pfaadt was real solid in July winning 2 of his 4 outings with one of the no-decisions being a 7-inning pitched one hitter (no ER). Arizona needed every ounce of his production. The starting rotation has been horrible; seeing Pfaadt throw some positive shades of rays again is huge with Merrill Kelly back from his April injury. It's time the rotation helps aid the bullpen; which has been rock solid behind Keith Ginkel & Ryan Thompson (21 Holds). Rock solid!
D-Backs will have to stay on the accelerator with how hot the Padres are, and with having a tougher remaining schedule than the Padres. The next three series should be a breeze against COL-TBR-MIA; after that it gets more tough as the Snakes play six playoff chasers & three current division leaders. It's a flip of the coin right now in predicting if the Snakes and Padres can keep there hot streaks going. Soon we find out.
Wild-Card Mania is now in full effect and set to run the noise meter wild. American League has 9 clubs in the playoff mix; with the National League having 10 clubs. With the current streakiness going on across the circuit- things should only get louder in the noise department. The NL is a complete and utter zoo. A bloodbath in the making as any one of the 10 clubs in the hunt can use one strong week of games to create a full shuffle in the standings. The AL has a different theme; seeing five teams way out front, with the rest of the pact just trying to keep a leg in the race. Lets give the races a peek shall we.
AL is looking to be far more predictable than the NL Wild-Card race. The teams contesting are more consistent and balanced than those in the NL. The intrigue bar still has the same type of fill as the NL, however. Don't get things twisted there. Very little separation between the contenders on top of the WC standings. Here is how things look as of today:
The lead Wild-Card spot holdin' Yanks are just 4.5 games ahead of the pact. Spots 2 and 3 are currently separated by just a half game between Central rivals KC & Minnesota. You then can see the separation between those in the hunt. Things are tight; I do think the cutoff (at least in the now) starts at Tampa Bay. I know the Rays are just 5.5 games back, but they still look to prove their placing to be worth a bet to go higher. Tigers are just holding on for a breath of air at this point; soon about to drown out of the race. Boston, Seattle, and the current holders- that's who I see this race coming down to. Looking at the hunters, allow me to break them down by three tiers: Sleeper, Safe Bet, and Out (Bad bet). Only some apply; the ones left out of tiers are playoff hunters that can have anything happen at this point.
Sleepers:
Everyone seems as if they are waiting patiently for the Royals to collapse. I can understand it; we all can be honest and admit they are exceeding their preseason expectations after how '23 went. I mean Seth Lugo a top-3 arm in baseball? Come on; not a soul had money on that one. This team has done a 360 compared to the team last season at this time. That gives people the idea they are bound to crash. I still think this club can send some shockwaves. My lone sleeper on the AL side. Bobby Witt Jr. doesn't seem to be slowing down and the team knows how to win games in bunches. KC already has a 4-game winning streak, and a 5-game winning streak in 2nd half play. Keeping that up and getting a playoff spot won't be easy when considering their remaining schedule.
Royals play 9 of their remaining 15 series on the road (27-28 road record), and have eight of their remaining 15 series against teams currently spotted in the playoff picture. Royals are 3-8 in series this season against current playoff spotters. If they want in, they need to change those ways. I'm not quick on goin' all in on the club; it's more going all in on Bobby Witt Jr. Don't rule out KC just yet.
Safe:
I look at the current bracket and see just three teams as safe bets to get in: the Yanks, Twins, and O's. The AL East looks to be locked down to a two-team race for the crown; which will surely determine a Wild-Card spot as well. I'd be shocked if the Orioles or Yankees choked away a spot. Predicting the winner of the East is difficult, but both clubs should get in. I feel safe saying that, no doubt. I also see the Twins as a safer bet over the Guardians, who have allowed the Twins and Royals to stay on the wing in the race for the crown. AL Central and AL Wild-Card races are being intermingled together. Ultra-exciting; lemme tell ya. From the sound I am hearing on the street; many are counting the Twins out. That's stupid to do, especially with what transpired last season.
Royals can be one of the hottest teams in baseball when they get going... well, so can the Twins. I think Minnesota has a strong chance to win the Central. If they don't; I feel confident they get one of the Wild-Card spots. I know the Twins are just 11-10 in 2nd-half play, but I trust their completeness over the Royals and Guardians. They need Carlos Correa to get back in the lineup, though. The season will hang on the line until they get him back, healthy, and productive. They need the pitching to lock in too.
Out:
Rays and Tigers are out. Detroit just isn't good enough to stick around in the race. Tarik Skubal is the Cy Young favorite, but he can't score runs, and he can't pitch every night. In regards to Tampa, they made some solid deadline moves that awarded them some more wins, but I can't feel comfortable in that team being playoff worthy. Just don't see them staying put in the race. Same thing I am beginning to feel regarding their division rival Red Sox.
Red Sox are looking to blow things up to find a way out of the hunt. Everyone was quick to hop on the Red Sox Express after they wrapped up the 1st-half of action in good success; now things are feeling different. I'm not on that express. No... not with what I am seeing from the Sox in the 2nd-half.
Boston has lost 4 games in a row to bring their current 2nd-half record to 8-13. Sox have been swept twice, had a 20-burger dropped on their heads by the 44-win Rockies, and have lost four of their seven 2nd-half series. I'm not sold on this team; sh** they could actually lose their spot to the Rays if they keep this losing streak going. By losing their spot, I really mean joining the Rays on the outskirts. Boston needs to use this series against the Rangers to snap their losing ways before going on the road to Baltimore and Houston next.
The NL Wild-Card race is bout to be absolutely insane. It could go down as one for the history books; at least with the way it's being drawn up. Ten teams are in the running and within 8 games or less of a WC spot. The pact is Bristol type packed tight. Here is how things look:
Diamondbacks and Padres heatin' up to take a 4-game lead each makes things less interesting for now, but that final spot is still under war conditions and blood will only shed more the deeper in the season we go. Lets be real, those top two spots are likely going to be contested again here soon. Lets get to the current NL tiers. The NL side is so wild open, only a few apply to tiers right now for me. It's like the wild-wild west out there right now. Who the hell knows what's going to happen
Sleepers:
My only sleeper take right now is the D-Backs and Padres stayin' hot and giving the NLW three playoff teams. I'm really just writing that to fill some context here. It's still the NLW! I said something similar last year, at about the same time, and they made me look like a fool, but these squads are so hot, why not put some faith on 'em. I still bet on LA winnin' the division, but I'd stop the Padres & Snakes before they get too hot. Or we may have two fall monsters ready to wreak havoc on the Fall Classic. We saw how Arizona played that tune last year.
Safe:
Easy one here: the three current division leaders remaining in the higher echelon of seeds are a safe bet to remain there come October. Phillies have struggled in the 2nd-half, but the rest of the pact in the East is well in the distance with the Braves struggling and the Mets not being consistent enough to find the right strides to make back the ground. Brewers would really have to collapse, and the Dodgers I think (I'd hope) will still outlast the surging West foes to secure the crown.
Out:
Nationals are for sure out, despite getting down to 8-games back going into tonight. A young team who can only use this time to get better- like last season's Royals squad, but to a higher degree. I am also throwing the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates in this tier. They are far too inconsistent for me to believe in them to make the playoffs. Pirates are on a current 7-game losing streak & the Reds and Cubs still can't manage to get and stay over .500. Frankly, I don't think the Cardinals will get in either.
The AL MVP race is starting to heat up! Bobby Witt Jr. has actually made his case strong enough to give Judge a run for his money; there is now no laying off the gas pedal. Witt scorched up July, batting .489 in 24 games with 44 Hits to apply some pressure in the race. Pressure that Judge felt in a big way as he is smashing the ball to start August. Take a peep on how the race looks with who leads head-2-head in the stat department:
Witt's fielding and base-running numbers helps tighten things up as well. I still lean comfortably to Judge, but Witt's case is getting stronger and stronger as the days go. Judge can't afford to lose any gas; or any momentum, because Witt is right there waiting for a slip up. I am excited to see if August will have this race tighten up more. BWJ better start gettin' back to the scorcher!
The report closes with some web-gem galore. This time courtesy of Jorge Polanco on the double-timer, a solo act, and an unreal Mariners double-play turn for the highlight tapes. Two nasty infield plays by Polanco on the same night... I'm talkin' nasty-nasty! Enjoy:
video via @TalkinBaseball//X
video via @TalkinBaseball//X
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